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Originally Posted by JustUss
First, email your questions to Joyce at jharley@marriagebuilders.com. Then, she will respond to you within a day by return email, and give you a toll-free number and specific time to call Dr. Harley directly during the show where he will answer your questions about marriage


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I'm not sure you understand the 15% statistic.

Nor do I, to be honest.

I think that this statistic, in relation to Plan A, is relating to more entrenched affairs.

ONS, cake-eating, or situations below "Soul Mates" on the spectrum are the higher percentage which are obliterated by exposure.

This 15% likely comes from a Plan A situation that occurs beyond discovery and exposure, when it is the BS alone fighting to recover the marriage.

Looking at that statistic in this manner, overall, takes the doom-and-gloom out of it.

The comparison would be any of the active recoveries going on here and now which ended the A with discovery and/or exposure.


Random number breakdown;

60% of marriages suffer from infidelity.

60% of affairs end within 6 months of exposure.

Of the remaining 40%, Plan A is successful 15% of the time.

Breaking the numbers down properly illustrates the actual probability much clearer.

Last edited by HoldHerHand; 03/21/11 06:14 PM.

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Originally Posted by HoldHerHand
I'm not sure you understand the 15% statistic.

It is somewhat confusing, because the wild card here is whether the WS ends the affair and commits to the marriage. MB obviously can't control that because they can't force someone to commit to the marriage against their will. A marriage with only one person committed to recovery obviously won't recover. In the matter of an affair, sure, there are things we can do to hopefully hasten its death, but even that cannot overcome someone's will.

Even so, in Dr Harley's practice, he says that 15% of affairs end in Plan A. We don't know how many end while in Plan B or just from dying a natural death. And I seriously doubt Harley would track that since it is something he can't control.

So the stats are are follows: 15% of affairs are killed in Plan A, 95% of affairs die within 2 years, 65% of marriages do not break up over the affair.

As far as Marriage Builders' rate of success on it's program - where 2 people proactively engage in using Harley's 10 basic concepts - Harley cites his success rate as 90%.

Originally Posted by Dr Harley on a thread titled "Does Marriage Builders Really Work?"
When I found that the model I've developed had helped over 90% of those I was counseling, I gave up my career as a college professor and started counseling full-time. At the time, I didn't assume that it would save all of the marriages it seemed to help, because I felt there were factors beyond a couple's control. But after 35 years of experience with this model, I'm not convinced that it works with 100% of couples who follow it. I've yet to witness one couple out of the tens of thousands I've seen, that did not experience a healthy and happy marriage by following this model. Personally, I feel it's the only answer to the question, how can a couple have a great marriage for life?

But it's very difficult to prove that one model of marital satisfaction is superior to another. The ultimate test is to randomly assign couples to various models and to measure their marital satisfaction after the provisions of each model have been implemented.

The training of therapists is a huge problem: How can we be sure that the therapist assigned to each model was properly trained? And there's also the problem of representation and random assignment: Does the group of volunteer couples represent the population at large? And is the assignment to treatment groups really random? There's also the ethical problem of assigning couples to a control group where they receive no effective treatment. When they divorce, does the researcher bear any responsibility? Finally, if someone who has a stake in the outcome does the research, it usually shows that their approach is best. Shouldn't studies of alternative models of marital satisfaction be conducted by those neutral to the outcome?

My own personal experience led me to the model I've been using for the past 35 years. But that's not proof of it's superiority over other models. What I need is objective studies conducted by those who have no bias that compare this model to others. That's hard to find even among those who have published hundreds of articles on martial therapy.

But I can direct you to three studies that support my enthusiasm. They all deal with my book, His Needs, Her Needs, the popular application of my model, and the effect it has on couples that read it.

The readers of Marriage Partnership Magazine were asked which self-help book on marriage helped their marriages the most. In that survey, His Needs, Her Needs came out on top. I didn't know that the survey was even being conducted, so when I called the editor after the results came in, I was curious to know more. He told me that it not only was the top choice, but it was far ahead of second place (Ron R. Lee. Best Books for a Better Marriage: Reader's Survey . Marriage Partnership Magazine, Spring 1998).

In a national survey that I sponsored, people were asked if any self-help book on marriage solved their marital problems. Out of 57 books that were read, only three were reported to have actually solved marital problems. The three were the Bible, James Dobson's Love for a Lifetime, and His Needs, Her Needs (Lynn Hanacek Gravel. Americans and Marriage: National Survey of US Adults. Barna Research Group, 2001).

Finally, five out of six couples that read His Needs Her Needs were found to experience significant improvement in marital satisfaction (Julie D. Braswell. The Impact of Reading a Self-Help Book on the Topic of Gender Differences on One's Perceived Quality of Marriage. Doctoral Dissertation, 1998, Azusa Pacific University.

Granted, these findings are not conclusive evidence that the model I use is superior to every other model of marital satisfaction. But when you find one that works for every couple that actually follows it, you have to be impressed. And coming as I did from almost zero effectiveness to almost complete success, I can't begin to tell you how convinced I am that it's the solution to a very difficult problem we face in our society.

I hope this helps answer your question.

Best wishes,
Willard F. Harley, Jr.


"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt

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Here is how Dr Harley explains the 15%:

Originally Posted by Dr Harley
When a WS refuses to leave the lover, there are no good options for the BS. At first, plan A is recommended because there is a slim hope (15%) that, with encouragement, a WS will make the decision to leave the lover. But 85% don't do that, even when plan A is implemented perfectly. That leaves two other choices which are both bad. The first is to continue plan A indefinitely, trying to encourage the WS to leave the lover, and the second is to initiate plan B, which is to completely separate from the WS. The problem with a coninuation of plan A is that it usually leads to severe emotional symptoms, including years of post-traumatic stress disorder, even when the WS eventually returns. Many women that I've counseled actually have nervous breakdowns in their effort to draw their WS back to them. Instead of making the BS attractive to the WS, plan A actually makes these poor women so unattractive that it completely eliminates all hope of reconciliation. And 95% of all affairs eventually "die a natural death." If you do absolutely nothing, they usually end.

So I've recommended plan B rather early in the effort to separate the WS from his lover. In your case, you've noticed that you have experienced a detached feeling about it all, even your husband's filing for divorce. That's the way it's supposed to turn out. You are far more attractive while in emotional control of yourself than you would ever be begging and pleading for his return. You tried that tactic already, and it hasn't worked.

Plan B doesn't always work, but it does protect you from the intense emotional pain that you could be experiencing day in and day out. Your husband may divorce you, but it won't be because you have implemented plan B. And if he returns to you, it won't be because you have implemented plan B. But if he does return, with a sincere willingness to completely leave his lover and follow our plan for recovery, he'll find a wife who is still sane if you follow plan B.

If your husband goes through with his plan to divorce you, he will be making the biggest mistake of his life. But you will be far less impacted by the emotional fallout if you are in plan B at the time. Don't assume that his actions are your fault. You have done everything you can to get him back. All you can do now is to protect yourself from your husband's second biggest mistake of his life -- his affair.


"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt

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Actually not true. There are spouses who have successfully recovered marriages who never experience the other participate in any MB program with or without the staff.

The one who uses MB can on what I believe to be rare occassions, lead the other to MB even if that spouse never participates in any formal coaching orany other study of the program.

I believe the 90% figure is two active participants and includes cases with no affair.

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Originally Posted by Enlightened_Ex
Actually not true. There are spouses who have successfully recovered marriages who never experience the other participate in any MB program with or without the staff.

Never said otherwise.

Quote
The one who uses MB can on what I believe to be rare occassions, lead the other to MB even if that spouse never participates in any formal coaching orany other study of the program.

One can "lead to," but not force.

Quote
I believe the 90% figure is two active participants and includes cases with no affair.

Please give me a citation where he excluded those in affairs.


"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt

Exposure 101


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For me, I would have liked to know the odds going in. I come up with about 30% or less. Dr Harley says Plan A kils about 15% and Plan B si even less successful. So, 30% tops.
Guess at 30% , I would say it is worth trying. But, I think that decision is personal and knowing the odds is helpful in assessing whether one wants to try.

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Isn't this a bit paternalistic/condescending. I would think any rational person would be interested in knowing the chances of success before making a decison. Knowing the odds des not equate to discouraging someone. That is up to the individual, and being fully informed seems to me to be a prerequisite to decing on a course of action.
Originally Posted by writer1
Originally Posted by SugarCane
But its being relevant to you should not be a reason for your discouraging BH's from trying to restore their marriages using Dr Harley's plans.

Exactly.

Just because it's relevant to you personally doesn't mean it's relevant to the other BH's who come here trying to save their marriages.

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And you are not being respectful when I asked if you would accept my answer and not ridicule a matter of opinion or preference.

You are unwilling or unable to say so. So my return question is why do you care if you are just going to pick it apart anyway, regardless why I think it's important.

You obviously don't want to know, otherwise you could make such a promise and actually keep it. If you wanted to know, instead of just trying to make me look bad with your veiled accusations regarding my veracity, then you would provide such an assurance.

I don't believe you care, you just want to win an argument from my perspective.

I'm not playing cat and mouse, if you want to know, I've spelled out, in plain English, what it takes for me to answer your question. It's a reasonable request, take it or leave it.

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Didn't you just say the 90% excludes those with affairs? I was under the impression his 90% figure included all those couples who came to him, affairs, no affairs, simply couples who came to him to restore their marriage.

I don't believe the 90% includes when one and only one spouse formally participates in the program.

So then, how is a 90% success rate that you bring up even relevant to the BS who has an active wayward for a spouse?

You question the relevance of my asking what are the typical results for a BH, and you mention the 90% stat.

Really?

Still no answer from Dr Harley or Joyce BTW.

Originally Posted by MelodyLane
Originally Posted by Enlightened_Ex
Actually not true. There are spouses who have successfully recovered marriages who never experience the other participate in any MB program with or without the staff.

Never said otherwise.

Quote
The one who uses MB can on what I believe to be rare occassions, lead the other to MB even if that spouse never participates in any formal coaching orany other study of the program.

One can "lead to," but not force.

Quote
I believe the 90% figure is two active participants and includes cases with no affair.

Please give me a citation where he excluded those in affairs.

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She never has before, why should I believe that she'll suddenly take a liking to my questions and answer them on the air?

This isn't the first time I've asked the question, or similar questions. My questions or e-mails have never been chosen for an on the air discussion.

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Originally Posted by SugarCane
Originally Posted by JustUss
First, email your questions to Joyce at jharley@marriagebuilders.com. Then, she will respond to you within a day by return email, and give you a toll-free number and specific time to call Dr. Harley directly during the show where he will answer your questions about marriage

Forwarding the previously posted e-mail to this address as well. We will see if I get any sort of response.

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Originally Posted by Enlightened_Ex
She never has before, why should I believe that she'll suddenly take a liking to my questions and answer them on the air?

This isn't the first time I've asked the question, or similar questions. My questions or e-mails have never been chosen for an on the air discussion.

I think this may be because you are not asking questions pertaining specifically to your own situation. I believe most of the questions asked on the show are addressing specific situations and attempting to help people with their individual problems. Your question about statistics and numbers doesn't fall into this category. Basically, it's just not the purpose of the radio show to address these types of issues.


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Originally Posted by Enlightened_Ex
Actually not true. There are spouses who have successfully recovered marriages who never experience the other participate in any MB program with or without the staff.

The one who uses MB can on what I believe to be rare occassions, lead the other to MB even if that spouse never participates in any formal coaching orany other study of the program.

I believe the 90% figure is two active participants and includes cases with no affair.

I was trying to respond to HHH who disagreed with my point about one spouse participating by suggesting the success rate for that scenario was zero.

Not even I am THAT pessimistic. I think there are cases where one spouse can encourage the other to change behaviors without any formal participation in a MB weekend, coaching or on-line training, etc.

But apparently I'm not smart enough to post with my smart phone, LOL

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Originally Posted by LarsT
Isn't this a bit paternalistic/condescending. I would think any rational person would be interested in knowing the chances of success before making a decison. Knowing the odds des not equate to discouraging someone. That is up to the individual, and being fully informed seems to me to be a prerequisite to decing on a course of action.
Originally Posted by writer1
Originally Posted by SugarCane
But its being relevant to you should not be a reason for your discouraging BH's from trying to restore their marriages using Dr Harley's plans.

Exactly.

Just because it's relevant to you personally doesn't mean it's relevant to the other BH's who come here trying to save their marriages.

I don't think Dr. Harley is trying to hide any statistics. In fact, the 15% success rate for Plan A is listed right on this web site.

I also doubt that he has actually kept a running total of successes or failures for the various phases of the plan. I suspect that even the 15% is more of an educated guess than a hard and fast scientific number.


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Can someone explainto me how disclosing the stats on success,in any way,acts a discouragement to a BS contemplating undertaking the program?
I would think that knowing the succes rate serves two purposes:
First, it allws one to assess thevalue of participating. Second, it might make a BS whose efforts fail feel less like a failure.

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Originally Posted by Enlightened_Ex
Didn't you just say the 90% excludes those with affairs? I was under the impression his 90% figure included all those couples who came to him, affairs, no affairs, simply couples who came to him to restore their marriage.

The 90% does not apply to Plan A and Plan B, which was my point. Which would be applicable to those in ACTIVE affairs. That 90% applies to those couples who use the basic concepts with both on board, regardless of an affair in the past. In other words, he doesn't apply that 90% to Plan A and Plan B.

On Plan A, for example, he only gives a 15% chance of the affair ending and no odds in Plan B. But then, he doesn't ever claim Plan B can save a marrige, it's only purpose is to protect the BS from the affair.

Quote
You question the relevance of my asking what are the typical results for a BH, and you mention the 90% stat.

Yes, the 90% stat is in conjuction to those couples who BOTH use the program, ie: the basic concepts. The 90% will apply to any BH when both he and his WW use the program.

And I see you still haven't answered my question. frown


"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt

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Originally Posted by LarsT
Can someone explainto me how disclosing the stats on success,in any way,acts a discouragement to a BS contemplating undertaking the program?
I would think that knowing the succes rate serves two purposes:
First, it allws one to assess thevalue of participating. Second, it might make a BS whose efforts fail feel less like a failure.

The stats ARE disclosed. They have never been hidden. The MB program has a 90% success rate when both couples are engaged. Plan A has a 15% success rate. And Plan B does not have a goal of reconciling the marriage at all, so that aspect would not be tracked.



"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt

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I really have no requirement for my questions to go on the air to be answered. They don't have to be aired.

They don't have to be answered either, it's not my website.

But until they are, it's just wild speculation out here, with folks taking whatever numbers they see and seeing if they fit with their biases, pro or con.

So Dr and Joyce H can clear it up. They can give a definitive answer that would help resolve the questions presented.

The can confirm or deny that BH's have a harder or easier time than BW's. They can confirm that BH's have a ____ success rate in achieving a restored marriage, or a ball park such as X out of Y based on his observations.

They can provide key factors that lead to success or failure, either with his behaviors, or the behaviors of a WW that may indicate she's more or less likely a lost cause.

He can spell out why he would or wouldn't use the program on Joyce if she were to betray him.

He could answer what would he tell his best friend if his best friend asked him what he should do about a wayward wife. If his friend asked his advice, what advice would he give him. Would he tell him the odds if he asked, or not, and so forth.

If the rate is low, then what has Dr H done to explore why the rate in certain circumstances is so low for those who are applying the plans and not achieving marital recovery.

As I said, for the sake of those who are following in my footsteps, experiencing the same sorts of things, I hope I'm wrong, I'd like to see 90% of BH's recover their marriages and have a mutually fulfilling marriage with their wives. Ditto for 90% of BW's.

But I believe the outcome is much lower.

I believe the figures quoted are when everything falls into place. When the WS ends the affair immediately upon exposure, or some external event derails their fantasy train.

The BS cannot always produce such an event. The BH can't file for divorce if the WW has already done so, so he can't make that worse.

He can stop giving her money, cut her off, but if her parents or the OM can support her, big deal.

If she can get custody, then he is unlikely to reverse that unless she's doing the OM on the coffee table while the child watches.

Plan B is no great loss for the WW who really wants no contact with her BH anyway, letter or no letter, so how is that any more effective than trying to meet needs she no longer wants him to need and actually resents that he's still trying to meet her needs, or worse, that he's NOW making a better effort to do so.

So why is it important for the BH or BW to know the odds. Because if the odds are so good, then that might encourage him to NOT GIVE UP!

If the odds of a restored marriage are 90%, then that needs to be broadcast, that the typical result for the BH who sticks with the program for XYZ months is a recovered marriage, so he won't lose hope and give up before success is obtained.

The lack of such statements by the staff send the tacit message that it's not the typical outcome, and I think those contemplating the program need to know the real odds and what characteristics improve or degrade those odds further to make a value judgment on the worth of the program.

So what are the odds when the WW has a family that supports the affair vs when the WW's family has nothing to do with the affair partner and continues to treat the BH as a family member.

What are the odds when the OM is single vs married. Or at the very least how does each help or hurt your chances.

And if you don't think they are relevant questions, I have an idea, don't answer them or even discuss them. Just because you don't find them relevant doesn't mean others don't want to know.

So if they are not relevant, discuss something else on another thread. Otherwise, by asking about them, you just demonstrate they are relevant by discussing them.

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Originally Posted by Enlightened_Ex
I'm not playing cat and mouse, if you want to know, I've spelled out, in plain English, what it takes for me to answer your question. It's a reasonable request, take it or leave it.

More sidestepping.


"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt

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