I realize this will be complete speculation, but what does everyone think the reason is that longer affairs are disproportionally represented here? The oft quoted statistics say that most affairs end within six months and that 95 percent or more end within two years. Why is it that a cursory look at these and other marriage-related forums have a much higher percentage of posters whose spouses' affairs have lasted longer than that? I haven't done a scientific study or anything, but I think this is an accurate observation...This thought crosses my mind from time to time, so I thought I'd ask.

Perhaps it's because most affairs go undetected and the ones that do end up being detected are more entrenched?

Mind you, my WW's affair is still less than a year old, so it could very well end within the normal time span. If it does, even if we don't reconcile, I'll be sure to post an update.

My suspicion is that there are more people who post on forums whose spouses are in long term affairs because they need more help. Just think about it. People who save their marriages move on. The divorced people who struggle the most in recovery are the ones whose spouses are in long term affairs so they tend to post longer term. The ones who just decide to divorce, don't post either. They get divorced and move on.

That's one demographic I was overlooking: the ones who just choose to divorce. I think you're right in your analysis, Melody. Thank you. I can sleep easier tonight, because that's one more question I don't have to think about anymore.

How about this demographic. Most affairs are 6 months of less. Less time the affair goes on the harder it is to detect it. By the time the BS starts to see red flags but before they realize that something foul is about the WS ended the affair and life goes back to normal so the BS lets go of their suspicions.

Right. If they don't know about it, they won't show up on any forums. Many do not find out about the affair, many divorce upon finding out about the affair, and many work things out before they feel they need outside support. What's left is naturally those affairs that are more persistent.

Agree with Mel's observation but there are also simply too many factors at play to get an answer. Even in detected affairs there are BSs who don't take steps to kill the affair. We have seen it time and time again when a BS refuses to expose and/or implement EPs only to come back here months or years later that the affair never died and they are either divorcing or still living in marital hell. And there are some BSs who are willing to stay married at all costs so why would the WS give up their AP or not move on to another AP?

If children are in the mix with either AP, that could also make a difference. I still don't think there is any single reason you can pinpoint.

I don't have an answer, but the statistics suggested by MB and other marriage crisis websites do give me questions and thoughts. I'm a bit of a nerd about methodology so when I see statistics I always want to know how it was put together.

For example:

What is the stat MB uses for % of marriages affected by infidelity? Something like 50%? What is their sample? People who come through their door or the general population? People seeking marriage coaching are going to have a bias towards problems like infidelity.

I've seen other surveys that say only 10-20% of spouses cheat (depending on gender, always men higher than women but only slightly in recent surveys). What is their sample, and how do they report? Are they actually asking people or just looking at divorce filings (which in the US rarely cite adultery anymore, even when it happens)? I've seen some surveys that claim infidelity is in sharp decline simply because it's rarely cited as a fault in divorce cases, which of course is a misguided approach given the rise of no-fault divorce law. If they're asking people, who's going to be honest enough to report? Seems to me many waywards (including my wife) consider their own adultery to be something other than adultery for whatever reason they can come up with.

It's hard for me to trust any stats on this topic because of all the variables, such as the ones already mentioned by other posters on this thread. And while probability is useful, it's not a certainty for how any given situation will turn out.

^^^^^ Agree. ^^^^^

Instead of ASSuming that Dr. Harley made up statistics from his practice, why not find out for sure? Facts do mean more than assumptions. Dr. Harley is a clinical psychologist who does not just make up statistics. He cites several studies and is very precise. Not sure why you wouldn't "trust" his citations if you have no idea where he obtains these figures. If he cites a statistic from his own practice, he states that. So you if you want his source, write him and ask for it: http://www.marriagebuilders.com/graphic/mbi4200_radio.html

I'm not calling Dr. Harley a liar or someone who would fabricate a statistic. I am sure the data he is looking at indicates the number he reports. I think he is a man of integrity, and the sample he is looking at is probably the best sample he has available to him. I mentioned the possibility of the sample being his clinics because I've heard him use this as a point of reference several times on the radio show for other topics.

I'm more curious about the data itself and how it was examined. Not as a means of questioning anyone's credibility, just sheer curiosity. I think this sort of thing is interesting no matter how one slices the pie, so to speak.

I don't trust very many statistics in general without at least glancing at the methodology involved. It's nothing against Dr. Harley.

Both the study and the methodology involved may be posted/cited elsewhere on the site.

Dr Harley is very precise in his language so if he is making a generalization based on his private practice or personal observations, he states that. He is a voracious researcher and reads most studies on marriages. You can email him and ask him for his sources.

I think it is hard to get good data on these statistics.
Most waywards are liars so how could any survey be accurate?
Even the BS who come here need to be convinced that their spouses are cheating.

I think Dr. Harley mentioned it comes from an airport survey. I've heard him say on the show that about 30% of people admit tohaving an affair. Interestingly, other surveys show 50% of people saying they would never admit to an affair even if their spouse knew about it. So he then says that he estimates that about 60% of marriages experience affairs.

Ax,

I am an economist and have done many end user surveys. You are right about your suspicions. I don't believe that Dr. Harley is lying about the numbers he using and is probably using the best research he can find. However, all data on infidelity is self-reported, and therefore very hard to trust. Not only is self-reported data unreliable to begin with, self-reported data about taboo topics is reeealllly unreliable. Since the statistic that he is citing gives such a high number, I wouldn't be surprised if the authors are "adjusting" self-reported data to try to correct for bias in the data. That's probably not the best thing to do, given that they don't know which segments of the population under reported.

Anyway, what I am saying is that it's an estimate and there is not really a reliable way of getting info.

Also,

I would say two things about the longevity of affairs on these boards. As most people have pointed out, most affairs actually die a natural death pretty quickly and the BS never really finds out (Dr. Harley has said this). Then, the vast majority of the rest divorce pretty quickly in the face of a more intractable affair.

Then there are a crazy band of people who want to make their marriages work in spite of it. Many of those people do nothing about the affair. My father was this type of person and my parents went back and forth for years before divorcing.

Then there are those who want to kill the affair and recover the marriage. They end up here. It really has to do with the character of both the spouses (WS--in an intractable affair and BS--usually an extremely tenacious fighter).