Aside from the quickie-divorce mecca of Nevada, no region of the United States has a higher divorce rate than the Bible Belt. <P>Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama and Oklahoma round out the Top Five in frequency of divorce. In a country where nearly half of all marriages break up, the divorce rates in these conservative states are roughly 50 percent above the national average. <P>Read more at <A HREF="http://www.cnn.com/US/9911/12/divorce.belt.states.ap/" TARGET=_blank>http://www.cnn.com/US/9911/12/divorce.belt.states.ap/</A> <BR>and tell me what you think...

We have to be careful with statistics. The divorce rate is 50%, but that rate is the measure of the number of divorces in a given year over the numbers of marriages in that year. It is misleading.<P>Prior to the liberalization of the divorce laws, the divorce rate was tiny in comparison. So there were a lot of marriages that would have ended under the current laws that did not, and are ending now. It's "Penned up demand" if you will. Last year the divorce rate actually dropped across most of North America. This could mean the initial surge of divorces is abiding.<P>To get a better measure of how many marriages end in divorce, one needs to look at the Total Number of Divorces Ever divided by The Total Number of Marriages Ever. Well, probably over say a 50 year period. Or even do a study confined to certain generations, so you don't have all these divorcing baby boomers clouding the generation X marriage statistics.<P>I have read estimates that using a statistic of this nature gives a probability of a marriage failing to be closer to 25%, not 50%.<P>The bible belt thing is interesting as well. Marriages conducted in churches generally have a higher failure rate than those not. I was reading an article on this and some of the causes suggested were:<P>- Religious people tend to marry earlier. The number one leading factor in determining a couples chances is the age of the woman upon marriage. The younger a woman is, the more likely the couple will divorce. There is a marked drop off after age of 26.<BR>- Churches actually provide more opportunities to meet potential "affair partners". Everything is very personal and male - female interactions are not viewed as suspiciously because everyone assumes the topic is "God". Yet a man and a woman interacting one on one in a bar would be very suspicious. So a church actually provides opportunity. I know a divorced couple very well. Their relationship ended when it was discovered that the wife was having an affair with another member of the church "music ministry".<BR>- Faith waxes and wanes. A marriage based on faith may not survive if one partner looses their faith for some reason. <BR>

I believe these divorce statistics aren't mixed with marriage statistics... but with the no. of divorces from the previous year. <P>However, you do make valid points.<P>I have noticed similar trend where I live: Marriage is relatively easy but to obtain a divorce is downright difficult. You have to be legally separated for a certain amount of years, then petition the court for the divorce decrees.<BR>Looking mainly at Divorce and Marriage statistics is misleading in this case... though figures for people living separated did shed more light on the situation.<BR>I assume, that if divorce laws were liberalized here,the demand would be penned up as well.<P><p>[This message has been edited by Anise (edited November 12, 1999).]

Nonplused,<BR>I found your reply to be very interesting and I tend to agree. I also think -- as probably you do, that it isn't one thing, but a lot of things contributing to the entire scenario. One thing I have always believed contributed is just the fact that statistics are kept at all -- and that it is just harder for folks to disappear now. For instance, my grandfather left my grandmother when their children were very young. He "married" a woman in another state and they had two children. But there was never a record of a divorce. Almost everyone I know has a story about some member of their family (back in early part of the century) just leaving and never coming back, or men having more than one family -- but one not being "legal" etc. What are your thoughts on this?<BR>

I think those statistics can be off-putting to some... but not all, Thank God.<BR>And projections aren't, after all, written in stone. <BR>I think couples have to be aware of the difficulties involved and then decide to work to avoid becoming a statistic!

Anise,<BR>After visiting that website I also thought about their comments about low divorce rate among Catholics. I live in a very small town with a tiny Catholic population and I know several couples who have had their marriage annulled. One guy has had two annullments -- and even had two children by the marriage. Some of the Catholic couples no longer live together, date, and even have live-ins -- but no divorce!<BR>My husband's first wife was Catholic (they didn't live here) but after five years of marriage -- she got their marriage annulled.<BR>As nonplused said -- statistics do not always reflect reality.<BR>