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Many times it's not the BS who chooses divorce, but the WS, and that lets them drive the timeline. In states where you don't have a two year waiting period, it might be worthwhile for the BS who wants to save his marriage to file first, so he can drive the pace at which things happen. One can file, and then sit on it, or work extremely slow waiting for the affair to die out. However, if the WS files, they can request response by a fixed time and the BS has to comply, get a continuance or be in contempt of court with any consequences that has. So in some jurisdictions, it may be beneficial to file, but not aggressively pursue the divorce, or at least not initially. I say this for those cases where the WS has moved out. If the WS is still in the marital home, I wouldn't advise this. In my case, it was my WW (now XW) who filed, so she drove the timeline of the divorce. There was little I could do to stop it. Let me try to break this down...
If you do NOTHING to break up an affair, it is 95% likely to end within two years. Whether anything is done in the way of Plan A, B, C, D or FU, 95% of ALL affairs are over within two years.
The reason they end is not a single reason and no single reason can be said to be at work in all affairs coming to an end.
But a set of things that are common to all affairs are also common to that 95%. These same things that are common to all affairs tend to make them less stable than other romantic relationships. They include but are not limited to, dishonesty, selfishness, lack of empathy, guilt, poor grasp of the real versus fanciful delusions and a host of other things that tend to make a relationship unstable.
So, of all affairs, 95% will end within the first two years no matter what is done by the BS.
15% of affairs end while a BS is actively engaged in Plan A. Some of these might actually have ended during this same time frame with no input from the BS but Plan A is not just seeking to end the affair but also to make the BS stronger, more confident, less inclined to be emotionally unstable and reactive and a bunch of other ancillary benefits. Plan A is effectively creating in the BS someone who can cope with the rigors of recovery. So while some of these affairs will end no matter what the BS does, the ones who were able to get a handle on their own stuff and actively pursue a Plan A are more likely to be able to work at actual recovery without as much of a learning curve.
Part of this I think has to do with the things that are the mainstays of Plan A for any BS. These things are learning to identify and meet ENs, identifying and learning to take control over Love Busters and understanding that missed expectations cause much of the uncertainty in their life. Now these things are all needed during recovery. But more importantly they are all required for a marriage to remain vibrant, growing and successful into the future. The ones who learn these things in Plan A are WAY ahead of the curve as opposed to most of the general population.
Now we know that 95% of affairs end within two years and only 15% have ended during the time period set aside for Plan A. Simple arithmetic tells us that this number that ends within two years and did not end during the Plan A time frame is in fact 80% of the total of all affairs. Since this is the time frame for which Plan B is described, to wait beyond Plan A to see if the affair will be part of the 95% at all it can be said that those 80% end during Plan B, though in reality that does not mean that Plan B was the reason that they ended since they would have ended anyway if they were part of the 95% that crash within the first two years.
Now a lot of people take exception with the 95% number and point to how many people they know who have relationships that began as a affair and the happy couple is still together some number of years beyond the two during which we have said 95% of all affairs end.
But here's the thing that is being lost. Look around a room full of people in any setting and if there are 100 married couples as many as 70 -75 of those couples one, the other or both spouses have actively cheated on their spouse. When you consider that the number for ALL affairs is so huge to think that everyone knows at least one couple whose affair lasted longer than that is not much of a stretch. If everyone on these forums knows just 1 that is hardly a dent in the remaining 5% of all affairs so there has to be a lot more that none of us know about.
Plan B is what Dr Harley recommends for folks who want to save their marriage and try to reconcile after they have done Plan A without the results they sought BECAUSE of these numbers, not to facilitate them. Since 95% of all affairs will be over within two years NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO, Plan B is a way to wait that long to see if your WS falls into the last 5% and Dr Harley doesn't think ANYONE should have to put their life on hold for longer than that, since the longer an affair goes on beyond 2 years the more likely it is to survive 5, ten, 50 or forever.
In other words, if you divorce before two years is up you have given up a 95% probability that the affair will end before you divorce. If our goal is to not divorce then waiting at least two years should be an easy leap with no citation needed.
The interesting thing about data of any kind that I find fascinating is that those who have already made up their minds as to the conclusion are the ones who just can't buy into the data. I can quote a survey of 500 people and give a percentage that say that they are not happy with their marriage and hardly anybody bats an eye. But if I say that a certain percentage are not happy because they were Christians and their spouses were not, someone will question the validity of the percentage, someone else will want to know how the survey was conducted and 2 more will question the sample. Three will ignore the conclusion because they have anecdotal evidence of things other than differing religions being cause of unhappiness in marriage in at least one case and at least one more will never accept it because he can't see the fuss because he is universalist and can't imagine why anyone would be unhappy over any religion. And a whole bunch of folks will offer various alternate conclusions to be drawn from the same set of data.
Break time is over, back on my head...
Mark
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FWIW, I believe my ex-wife's affair lasted about four years. I think it was done in the fall of 2007. That's when my daughter stopped talking about the original OM and started talking about the others guys her mom was seeing. Just a data point. It's called math, iam. 95% end within two years. 15% end during Plan A. 95-15=80...  Not withstanding this brilliant reply  ... Just give me the citation. For someone to state that 80% of affairs end during Plan B is disingenuious. If it's true they can point out where they saw the stat. ok, lets use some math AND logic, IAM. That will be our "citation." Here we go: If 95% of affairs end within 2 years but only 15% of affairs end in Plan A, how much is 95 minus 15? 
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It's called math, iam. 95% end within two years. 15% end during Plan A. 95-15=80... Not withstanding this brilliant reply ... Just give me the citation. For someone to state that 80% of affairs end during Plan B is disingenuious. If it's true they can point out where they saw the stat. ok, lets use some math AND logic, IAM. That will be our "citation." Here we go: If 95% of affairs end within 2 years but only 15% of affairs end in Plan A, how much is 95 minus 15? Again, why the juvenile response?
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It's called math, iam. 95% end within two years. 15% end during Plan A. 95-15=80... Not withstanding this brilliant reply ... Just give me the citation. For someone to state that 80% of affairs end during Plan B is disingenuious. If it's true they can point out where they saw the stat. ok, lets use some math AND logic, IAM. That will be our "citation." Here we go: If 95% of affairs end within 2 years but only 15% of affairs end in Plan A, how much is 95 minus 15? Hey now, if you really need a "citation" for this, I'm pretty sure dd9 brought home her 3rd grade math book today! Let me know!  Mrs. W
FWW ~ 47 ~ MeFBH ~ 50 ~ MrWonderingDD ~ 17 Dday ~ 2005 ~ Recovered
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Now we know that 95% of affairs end within two years and only 15% have ended during the time period set aside for Plan A. Simple arithmetic tells us that this number that ends within two years and did not end during the Plan A time frame is in fact 80% of the total of all affairs. Since this is the time frame for which Plan B is described, to wait beyond Plan A to see if the affair will be part of the 95% at all it can be said that those 80% end during Plan B, though in reality that does not mean that Plan B was the reason that they ended since they would have ended anyway if they were part of the 95% that crash within the first two years. The bolded part is what I was referring to. I think it is EXTREMELY misleading to imply to newly BS's here that 95% of affairs end due to MB methods which is EXACTLY what was implied.
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It's called math, iam. 95% end within two years. 15% end during Plan A. 95-15=80... Not withstanding this brilliant reply ... Just give me the citation. For someone to state that 80% of affairs end during Plan B is disingenuious. If it's true they can point out where they saw the stat. ok, lets use some math AND logic, IAM. That will be our "citation." Here we go: If 95% of affairs end within 2 years but only 15% of affairs end in Plan A, how much is 95 minus 15? Hey now, if you really need a "citation" for this, I'm pretty sure dd9 brought home her 3rd grade math book today! Let me know! Mrs. W Great, someone else who will spout statistics and give no source. Oh, and add juvenile comments.
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Mark,
I'm not going to argue this further, because quite frankly, neither of us have accurate statistics to back up our theories, but either I live in an Appalachain Anomaly Region or the 95% of A's ending within 2 years is not accurate.
Admittedly its only anecdoatal evidence, but FogFree and I live in a small rural area and we can fill up both set of hands counting affair marriages that have lasted for a number of years that we know.
Also, there is usually a companion statistic to the 95% of affairs end in less than 2 years that states something like 70% +/- of those remaining 5% that ultimately marry will divorce ... again those same people I'm talking about in the above paragraph are almost ALL still married to their affair partners.
For me, those stats just don't add up based on my own personal knowledge and experience.
Now I can think of some reasons peculiar to this region that may account for some of this ... (i.e. historically a higher percentage from this area get pregnant and M'd in their teens, which doesn't often lead to monogamy or long M's) ...
... but if I want to be cynical (which comes naturally), I could also conclude that a for-profit, pro-marriage business would have a vested interest in cherry picking and citing statistics that support their theories and increase their revenues.
Granted, all of this is speculation, but IMHO, so are the original statistics in question. Unfortunately, we all should be skeptical of statistics that are based on surveys of waywards, who have a built in tendency to lie plus an incentive to do so.
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Hey now, if you really need a "citation" for this, I'm pretty sure dd9 brought home her 3rd grade math book today! Let me know! Mrs. W Great, someone else who will spout statistics and give no source. Oh, and add juvenile comments. MrsW, does your DD's 3rd grade math book have a "citation" for 95 minus 15? We need evidence, I tell ya! 
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt Exposure 101
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I think it is EXTREMELY misleading to imply to newly BS's here that 95% of affairs end due to MB methods which is EXACTLY what was implied. Please show me where anyone has ever said that MB methods end 95% of affairs.
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt Exposure 101
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Mark,
I'm not going to argue this further, because quite frankly, neither of us have accurate statistics to back up our theories, but either I live in an Appalachain Anomaly Region or the 95% of A's ending within 2 years is not accurate.
Admittedly its only anecdoatal evidence, but FogFree and I live in a small rural area and we can fill up both set of hands counting affair marriages that have lasted for a number of years that we know. But, you can't refute a statistic with an ANECDOTE. That makes no sense. And until I see something that legitimately refutes the 95% figure, Dr Harley's oft spoken statistic of 95% stands.
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt Exposure 101
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I think it is EXTREMELY misleading to imply to newly BS's here that 95% of affairs end due to MB methods which is EXACTLY what was implied. Please show me where anyone has ever said that MB methods end 95% of affairs. That's funny, the one who won't show me a citation for her statement asking me for one! Well here it is anyway.... 15% of AFFAIRS end in Plan A although 95% of affairs do end in under 2 years. So what does that tell you? It should tell you that 15% end in Plan A and that the other 80% end in Plan B. Spin away.
Last edited by iam; 01/15/09 05:12 PM. Reason: addition
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I think it is EXTREMELY misleading to imply to newly BS's here that 95% of affairs end due to MB methods which is EXACTLY what was implied. Please show me where anyone has ever said that MB methods end 95% of affairs. That's funny, the one who won't show me a citation for her statement asking me for one! Well here it is anyway.... 15% of AFFAIRS end in Plan A although 95% of affairs do end in under 2 years. So what does that tell you? It should tell you that 15% end in Plan A and that the other 80% end in Plan B. In other words, you can't back up your claim as we both knew. No one has ever said that "MB methods end 95% of affairs." iams, you don't need a "citation" to be able to subtract 15 from 95. You need a calculator and some common sense. and perhaps a sharp 2nd grader.
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt Exposure 101
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Mark,
I'm not going to argue this further, because quite frankly, neither of us have accurate statistics to back up our theories, but either I live in an Appalachain Anomaly Region or the 95% of A's ending within 2 years is not accurate.
Admittedly its only anecdoatal evidence, but FogFree and I live in a small rural area and we can fill up both set of hands counting affair marriages that have lasted for a number of years that we know. But, you can't refute a statistic with an ANECDOTE. That makes no sense. And until I see something that legitimately refutes the 95% figure, Dr Harley's oft spoken statistic of 95% stands. Nice job of cherry picking the part you can attack and ignoring the rest. Considering your exchange with iam ... it appears that is your MO, which isn't working for you either.
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Mark,
I'm not going to argue this further, because quite frankly, neither of us have accurate statistics to back up our theories, but either I live in an Appalachain Anomaly Region or the 95% of A's ending within 2 years is not accurate.
Admittedly its only anecdoatal evidence, but FogFree and I live in a small rural area and we can fill up both set of hands counting affair marriages that have lasted for a number of years that we know. But, you can't refute a statistic with an ANECDOTE. That makes no sense. And until I see something that legitimately refutes the 95% figure, Dr Harley's oft spoken statistic of 95% stands. Nice job of cherry picking the part you can attack and ignoring the rest. Considering your exchange with iam ... it appears that is your MO, which isn't working for you either. And as is usual with you, MyRev, you can't defend your points. I will post it again for you: "But, you can't refute a statistic with an ANECDOTE. That makes no sense. And until I see something that legitimately refutes the 95% figure, Dr Harley's oft spoken statistic of 95% stands"
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt Exposure 101
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Skipping over the citations/stats issue (just an FYI; the CDC keeps stats on infidelity, remarriage, etc. - they have the best meta-analysis I know of - I used to teach graduate stat - might want to go take a look) - want to pick up on Enlightened's comments about when it might be in the BS's best interest to file, even if they don't want to.
Mine is such a case. In the state where I live, the person who files for divorce first - initiates it - absolutely, positively controls the process. That party can speed it up, slow it down, as Enlightened suggested. They make the first demands in negotiations and can strategize pretty much to extend things (or shorten them).
That's exactly why I filed. My WH was threatening to file if I didn't. He'd contacted a lawyer. His OW was already out of her marriage "to be with him" and was pushing him. I was between a rock and a hard place for business reasons I won't belabor here (go find the "Wavering" thread if you're interested in how that whole mess is playing out) and so when I believed he was going to file, I went ahead purely for strategic reasons. It would have been just plain DUMB for me not to.
Now, I didn't want to file. Before I filed, as I was filing, and after I filed I let WH know (in discussion and in email) that for me, the filing was a legal technicality done to protect assets ONLY. That I wanted to work on the marriage. That I was willing to address LBs of mine and fix them. That I wanted his happiness. Yada yada (I was in Plan A).
I've been in Plan B for 2 1/2 months now and the damage to the business just rolls on and on - and I'm getting so ticked off about his negligence and maliciousness that I just fired off an email to another attorney in the state where the company is HQ'd (not my state of residence) to see if I have grounds to file a lawsuit for breach of fiduciary responsibility to the corporation - against him. (He forced the filing even though he was warned twice by me that the timing could destroy our chances at a new, very lucrative contract. It did.)
Now, I don't know if I'd be "here" (considering the breach lawsuit too) if I hadn't gone ahead and filed for D. It _was_ crossing a boundary of sorts - even though I didn't want to cross it. And nothing's in his face at the moment...I'm just exploring the "other lawsuit" option. The only thing I've done about the D is not let him rush to a quick settlement (which he's tried 3 times so far). I get the Harley "B until you're sure, and only then, D" notion - but there really are times that this is NOT in the best interest of the BS. I was counseling w/Steve Harley at the time, and he was in 100% agreement to file, given the legal issues.
Since none of us have do-overs, I will never know if things would have been different if I had done nothing. I suspect I'd be divorced already, because he would have driven the show.
- M
Me - BW/BS Age: 56 Married 7 1/2 years Divorced Jan 2010
EA began '07 PA began Jan '08
Found out July 2008 Found MB September
Plan A 09/03/2008
I filed D 10/31/2008
Dark Plan B began 11/09/2008
Emerged from Plan B 11/15/2009
Court date (final) scheduled for 12/16/2009
Divorce Final January 2010
Plan B recommenced upon Divorce
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I think it is EXTREMELY misleading to imply to newly BS's here that 95% of affairs end due to MB methods which is EXACTLY what was implied. Please show me where anyone has ever said that MB methods end 95% of affairs. That's funny, the one who won't show me a citation for her statement asking me for one! Well here it is anyway.... 15% of AFFAIRS end in Plan A although 95% of affairs do end in under 2 years. So what does that tell you? It should tell you that 15% end in Plan A and that the other 80% end in Plan B. In other words, you can't back up your claim as we both knew. No one has ever said that "MB methods end 95% of affairs." iams, you don't need a "citation" to be able to subtract 15 from 95. You need a calculator and some common sense. and perhaps a sharp 2nd grader. Oh, I refuted you perfectly. I posted your claim of Plan A ending 15% of affairs and Plan B ending 80%. You just keep spinning. The problem is you believe you are never wrong.
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[quote=iam]
I think it is EXTREMELY misleading to imply to newly BS's here that 95% of affairs end due to MB methods which is EXACTLY what was implied. Please show me where anyone has ever said that MB methods end 95% of affairs. That's funny, the one who won't show me a citation for her statement asking me for one! Well here it is anyway.... 15% of AFFAIRS end in Plan A although 95% of affairs do end in under 2 years. So what does that tell you? It should tell you that 15% end in Plan A and that the other 80% end in Plan B. I've shown you where you claim MB principles end 95% of affairs. What say you?
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15% of AFFAIRS end in Plan A although 95% of affairs do end in under 2 years. So what does that tell you? It should tell you that 15% end in Plan A and that the other 80% end in Plan B. I've shown you where you claim MB principles end 95% of affairs. What say you? [/quote] No you have not, IAM. This says: "It should tell you that 15% end in Plan A and that the other 80% end in Plan B. " That does not say that "MB principles end 95% of affairs." So, I ask you again, where has anyone said that MB principles end 95% of affairs?
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt Exposure 101
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15% of AFFAIRS end in Plan A although 95% of affairs do end in under 2 years. So what does that tell you? It should tell you that 15% end in Plan A and that the other 80% end in Plan B. I've shown you where you claim MB principles end 95% of affairs. What say you? No you have not, IAM. This says: "It should tell you that 15% end in Plan A and that the other 80% end in Plan B. " That does not say that "MB principles end 95% of affairs." So, I ask you again, where has anyone said that MB principles end 95% of affairs? [/quote] How about the little fact that only MB uses the terms Plan A and Plan B?
Last edited by iam; 01/15/09 05:49 PM.
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IAM, rest assured that I was not implying that MB principles end 95% of affairs. I am only saying that 95% of affairs end within 2 years. Of those that DO USE MB, we could logically conclude that since 15% end in Plan A that the others end in plan B.
That is not to say that PLAN B "ends" them, only that, for whatever reason, that is when the majority END. Saying that something ENDS during Plan B is not the same as saying that "MB principles end the affair."
Hope that clarifies the issue for you.
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena.." Theodore Roosevelt Exposure 101
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